ANALYSIS - Before talks with Trump, Saudi Arabia doubles down on terms for Israel ties

The establishment of diplomatic relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia after decades of enmity could shake up the political and security landscape in the Middle East, potentially strengthening U.S. influence in the region.

Trump said last month he hoped Saudi Arabia would "very soon" join other Muslim countries that signed the 2020 Abraham Accords normalising ties with Israel.

But Riyadh has signalled to Washington through diplomatic channels that its position has not changed: it will sign up only if there is agreement on a roadmap to Palestinian statehood, two Gulf sources told Reuters.

The intention is to avoid diplomatic missteps and ensure alignment of the Saudi and U.S. positions before any public statements are made, they said. One said the aim was to avoid any confusion at or after the White House talks on November 18.

The Crown Prince, widely known as MbS, "is not likely to entertain any possible formalising of ties in the near future without at least a credible pathway to a Palestinian state," said Jonathan Panikoff, former deputy U.S. national intelligence officer on the Middle East.

MbS is likely to try to use his influence with Trump to seek "more explicit and vocal buy-in for the establishment of a sovereign Palestinian state," said Panikoff, who is now at the Atlantic Council think tank in Washington.

TRUMP'S UPBEAT COMMENTS ON ABRAHAM ACCORDS

Next week's visit is the Crown Prince's first to Washington since the 2018 killing of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi, an MbS critic whose murder in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul caused global outrage. MbS denied direct involvement.

The United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Morocco have already normalised ties with Israel under the Abraham Accords, and Trump has said he expects an expansion of the accords soon.

"We have a lot of people joining now the Abraham Accords, and hopefully we're going to get Saudi Arabia very soon," he said on November 5, without offering a timeline.

In a television interview broadcast on October 17, he said: "I hope to see Saudi Arabia go in, and I hope to see others go in. I think when Saudi Arabia goes in, everybody goes in."

But the agreement signed by the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Morocco sidestepped the issue of Palestinian statehood.

The two Gulf sources said Riyadh had signalled to Washington that any move to recognise Israel must be part of a new framework, not just an extension of any deal.

For Saudi Arabia — the birthplace of Islam and custodian of its two holiest sites, Mecca and Medina - recognising Israel would be more than just a diplomatic milestone. It is a deeply sensitive national security issue tied to resolving one of the region’s oldest and most intractable conflicts.

Such a step would be hard to take when Arab public mistrust of Israel remains high over the scale of its military offensive during the war against the Palestinian armed group Hamas in Gaza, despite a fragile ceasefire in the conflict that followed the Hamas-led attack on southern Israel on October 7, 2023.

Saudi Foreign Ministry official Manal Radwan has called for a clear, time-bound Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, the deployment of an international protection force and the empowerment and return of the Palestinian Authority to Gaza.

These steps, she said, are essential to the establishment of a Palestinian state - the prerequisite for regional integration and the implementation of the two-state solution.

With Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu staunchly opposed to Palestinian statehood, Saudi Arabia sees no immediate prospect to satisfy Trump’s demand that it normalise ties with Israel, the sources told Reuters.

Progress on that front depends on concessions neither Washington nor Israel is currently prepared to make, Saudi officials say.

TRUMP AND CROWN PRINCE SET TO SEAL DEFENCE PACT

Saudi officials are intent on steering the Trump-MbS meeting towards defence cooperation and investment, wary that the politically charged issue of normalisation of ties with Israel could overshadow the agenda.

The meeting is expected to seal a pivotal defence pact defining the scope of U.S. military protection for the de facto ruler of the world's top oil exporter, and to cement America's military footprint in the Gulf.

The prospective deal has, however, been scaled back.

Two other Gulf sources and three Western diplomats said the defence deal falls short of the full, Congress-ratified treaty Riyadh once sought in exchange for the long-promised normalisation of ties with Israel.

The agreement, loosely modelled on an arrangement with Qatar that was established through an executive order in September, expands cooperation to include cutting-edge technology and defence.

Riyadh, according to the two Gulf sources, pushed for provisions to allow future U.S. administrations to elevate the pact to a full treaty - a safeguard to ensure continuity for a non-binding pact, vulnerable to reversal by future presidents.

"It’s not the treaty they want, they might not see it as perfect but it’s a stepping stone (to a full treaty)," said David Makovsky, a fellow at the Washington Institute, where he directs a project on Arab-Israeli relations.

The linkage between the defence pact, normalisation with Israel and Palestinian statehood has produced a complex negotiating equation, pushing Riyadh and Washington to settle for a limited defence deal in the absence of progress on the other two tracks, the Gulf sources and Western diplomats said.

That compromise, they say, could eventually evolve into a full treaty if normalisation advances.

"The Saudi-American negotiations have undergone a fundamental shift in environment and context following the developments in Gaza since October 7," said Abdulaziz Sager, head of the Saudi-based Gulf Research Institute think tank.

He said the direct linkage between normalisation of ties with Israel and Palestinian statehood remained, but Riyadh now wanted Saudi national security requirements addressed separately.

"The Saudi position is clear: meeting the Kingdom's national security demands will help shape its broader stance on regional issues, including the resolution of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict," he said.

THREAT FROM IRAN RECEDING

A NATO-style defence pact appears a distant prospect, given the shifting regional calculus and the political hurdles in Washington.

Iran, the main threat once driving Riyadh’s pursuit of binding U.S. guarantees, has been strategically weakened over the past year by Israeli strikes on its nuclear and military infrastructure.

Tehran's proxies - the Hezbollah movement in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza and the Houthis in Yemen - have also suffered heavy blows.

With pressure from Iran easing, the appetite for a treaty requiring two-thirds congressional approval has diminished, especially in the absence of normalisation with Israel.

The two Gulf sources said such a pact would likely come with conditions, including curbs on Saudi Arabia's expanding economic and technology ties with China, complicating Riyadh's drive to balance strategic autonomy with U.S. security guarantees.

The current deal would expand joint military exercises, deepen cooperation between U.S. and Saudi defence firms, and include safeguards to limit Riyadh’s military-industrial ties with China, the sources said.

It would also fast-track advanced U.S. weapons sales to the kingdom, bypassing the delays and political hurdles that have stalled previous deals.