ASEAN+3 growth forecast trimmed amid tariff risks, but outlook seen remaining resilient

SINGAPORE: The ASEAN+3 region is projected to grow at 3.8 per cent in 2025 and 3.6 per cent in 2026, according to the latest ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook (AREO) quarterly update by the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO).

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Regional growth faces pressure from US tariffs but remains stable due to early policy responses.
Inflation is easing and currencies are steady despite global risks.
Stronger integration and support from China, Japan, and South Korea are vital for stability and growth.

ASEAN+3 refers to the ASEAN member states plus China, Japan, and South Korea.

AMRO chief economist Dong He said that although these projections represented a downward revision from the April forecast, primarily due to the impact of rising US tariffs, the region continues to demonstrate fundamental resilience, supported by proactive policy responses.

"Encouragingly, the ASEAN+3 region enters this period of global trade turbulence from a position of relative strength and resilience. Most regional policymakers have acted early to cushion the impact of the trade shock, and policy space remains available for further support if needed," he said in a statement on the release of the report.

AMRO said the economic outlook remains clouded by significant uncertainties, with escalating US tariffs posing the most salient risk. "Ongoing geopolitical tensions add layer of complexity, while a sharper-than-expected economic slowdown in the US and Europe, coupled with prolonged high US interest rates, could further dampen growth prospects," it noted.

On a more positive note, inflation across the region continues to moderate, despite a temporary spike in oil prices driven by tensions in the Middle East. Financial markets have also shown resilience, with regional currencies generally appreciating against the US dollar amid growing market concerns over US policy uncertainty.

Meanwhile, Dong He emphasised the urgency of deeper regional integration to build resilience against external shocks and create new growth opportunities. "ASEAN+3's collective economic weight - representing nearly one-third of global GDP - combined with deepening regional integration and established crisis management frameworks, provides a robust foundation for navigating current global challenges," he told Bernama.

He also highlighted the critical role of the Plus Three economies in underpinning ASEAN regional dynamics. "China's accommodative policies and role as the region's largest final demand market provide important stability for ASEAN supply chains," he said, adding that Japan and South Korea remain key technology providers and major investors in the region.

-- BERNAMA