This is what could happen next after an Israel-Iran ceasefire

Yet, the answer to the bottom line question — “what’s next?” — remains unknowable and unpredictable. That is because President Donald Trump has essentially sidelined the traditional U.S. national security apparatus and confined advice and decision-making to a very small group of top aides operating from the White House.

While there is uncertainty about whether the ceasefire between Iran and Israel will hold, it opens the possibility of renewed talks with Tehran over its nuclear program and reinvigorating stalled negotiations in other conflicts.

“Now it’s time for us to sit down with the Iranians and get to a comprehensive peace agreement,” special envoy Steve Witkoff said Tuesday on Fox News Channel’s “The Ingraham Angle.”

Watching for next steps on Trump’s social media

Outside experts, long consulted by presidential administrations on policy, have been forced like the general public to follow Trump’s social media musings and pronouncements for insights on his thinking or the latest turn of events.

Even Congress does not appear to be in the loop as top members were provided only cursory notifications of Trump’s weekend decision to hit three Iranian nuclear facilities, and briefings on their impact scheduled for Tuesday were abruptly postponed.

State Department spokeswoman Tammy Bruce, whose agency has played a key role in formulating Iran policy for decades, repeatedly on Tuesday deferred questions to the White House and Trump’s posts.

“The secretary of state was in a dynamic with the president that is a private dynamic as that team was addressing a war and the nature of how to stop it,” she told reporters. “I can’t speak to how that transpired or the decisions that were made.”

Trump’s announcement Monday that Israel and Iran agreed to a ceasefire took many in the administration by surprise — as did his post Tuesday that China is now free to import Iranian oil.

It’s an apparent 180-degree shift from Trump’s “maximum pressure campaign” on Iran since he withdrew from the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement during his first term. U.S. officials were left wondering if that meant wide-ranging sanctions aimed at cutting off Iran’s energy revenue were being eased or reversed.

While the extent of the damage from 11 days of Israeli attacks and the weekend strikes by U.S. bunker-buster bombs is not yet fully known, a preliminary assessment from the Defense Intelligence Agency said the nuclear program had been set back only a few months and was not “completely and fully obliterated” as Trump has said.

According to people familiar with the report, it found that while the strikes at the Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan nuclear sites did significant damage, they were not totally destroyed.

Still, most experts believe the facilities will require months or longer to repair or reconstruct if Iran chooses to try to maintain its program at previous levels. Witkoff said the strikes set back Iran’s ability to enrich uranium to weapons-grade by years.

Vice Admiral Brad Cooper, deputy commander of U.S. Central Command, who has been nominated to lead forces in the Middle East, told lawmakers Tuesday that Iran still possesses “significant tactical capability.” He pointed to Iran’s attempt to retaliate by launching missiles at a U.S. base in Qatar.

In response to a question about whether the Iranians still pose a threat to U.S. troops and Americans worldwide, Cooper replied, “They do.”

Trump, after announcing the ceasefire, boasted that Iran will never again have a nuclear program.

However, there are serious questions about whether Iran’s leadership, which has placed a high premium on maintaining its nuclear capabilities, will be willing to negotiate them away.

Another major question is what happens with negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program. It is not entirely clear who in Iran has the authority to make a deal or even agree to reenter talks .

Ray Takeyh, a former State Department official and senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, said Iranian leadership is at a moment of disarray — making it difficult to return to the table.

“The country’s leadership and the regime is not cohesive enough to be able to come to some sort of negotiations at this point, especially negotiations from the American perspective, whose conclusion is predetermined, namely, zero enrichment,” he said.

Karim Sadjadpour, an Iran expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, agreed, saying the biggest challenge right now is who is in charge in Tehran.”

“Is there an Iranian negotiation team empowered to make consequential decisions?” he said. “The issue is that (Trump) is dealing with an Iranian government whose longtime identity has been based on hostility toward the the United States.”

Witkoff said the U.S. and Iran are already in early discussions, both directly and through intermediaries, about resuming negotiations. “The conversations are promising. We’re hopeful.”

At the U.N. on Tuesday, Iranian Ambassador Amir Saeid Iravani told the Security Council that “diplomacy and dialogue are the only path to resolving the unnecessary crisis over Iran’s peaceful program.”

In the aftermath of the U.S. strikes, Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio both stressed that diplomacy is still Trump’s preferred method for ending the conflict permanently.

“We didn’t blow up the diplomacy,” Vance told NBC’s “Meet the Press” on Sunday. “The diplomacy never was given a real chance by the Iranians. And our hope … is that this maybe can reset here.”

Rubio echoed those comments.

“We’re prepared right now, if they call right now and say we want to meet, let’s talk about this, we’re prepared to do that,” he said. “The president’s made that clear from the very beginning: His preference is to deal with this issue diplomatically.”

If it holds, the ceasefire could offer insight to the Trump administration as it tries to broker peace in several other significant conflicts with ties to Iran.

An end — even a temporary one — to the Iran-Israel hostilities may allow the administration to return to talks with mediators like Egypt and Qatar to seek an end to the war between Israel and the Iranian-backed armed group Hamas.

In Syria, a further shift away from now-weakened Iranian influence — pervasive during ousted leader Bashar Assad’s reign — could open new doors for U.S.-Syria cooperation. Trump already has met the leader of the new Syrian government and eased U.S. sanctions.

Similarly, tense U.S. relations with Lebanon also could benefit from a reduced Iranian role in supporting the Hezbollah armed group, which has been a force of its own — rivaling if not outperforming the Lebanese Armed Forces, particularly near the Israeli border.

If an Iran-Israel ceasefire holds, it also could allow Trump the time and space to return to stalled efforts to broker a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine.

Russia and Iran have substantial economic and military cooperation, including Tehran providing Moscow with drones that the Russian military has relied on heavily in its war against Ukraine.

Russia has stepped up attacks on Ukraine in recent days as Israel attacked sites in Iran, perhaps expecting the world’s attention to shift away from its three-year-old invasion.